Australia wheat production is expected to rise to a record 42 million tonnes as results from the final phase of harvest show higher yields in the world’s second-largest exporter of the grain, traders and an analyst said.

At 2,255m t, the Council's forecast for 2022/23 world grains (wheat and coarse grains) production is trimmed slightly m/m (month-on-month), mainly on a smaller wheat estimate. The focus is centred on prospects in the main southern hemisphere exporters, with concerns mounting about winter crops in Argentina.

Australia's near-record winter grain crop is under threat from heavy rainfall that is sweeping the east coast, damaging crops and making it impossible to access fields in some regions. Agricultural bank Rabobank had forecast that Australia's harvest could be a near-record 61.9mn t in its 2022-23 Australian Winter Crop Forecast. But this was put together before the latest wet system that is moving up the east coast, bringing heavy rainfall to already saturated ground and full river systems and leading to flooding.

Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley production is expected to rebound significantly in 2022-23 and regain its market share lost due to lower production last season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Exports of barley, wheat and wheat flour are expected to reach multiyear highs on strong production and steady demand from importing countries, the USDA said.

WHEAT 2022 production forecast raised m/m, largely on better prospects in Australia, the EU, and especially the Russian Federation, and now pointing to a new record high.