China’s total grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach a record 715 million tonnes, according to an assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Despite higher domestic output, demand for staple grains — particularly wheat and corn — continues to expand, driven mainly by the feed sector, which is expected to support higher import volumes.

Kazakhstan plans to significantly expand its grain deep-processing capacity by 2028 through the implementation of five projects with a combined capacity of up to 4.8 million tonnes of wheat and corn per year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, this strategy is viewed as a key step in transitioning the agro-industrial sector from a raw-material export model toward the production of competitive, higher value-added goods.

Argentina is expected to harvest a record wheat crop of around 27.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, according to an assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Industry observers attribute the increase to sustained investment in improved seed genetics and production technologies, combined with favourable weather conditions, including a wet winter and a relatively cool grain-maturing period.

The European Union and the Mercosur bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — have signed a long-awaited free trade agreement, concluding more than 25 years of negotiations.

After the US government announced new tariffs against Canada, Mexico and China, these countries took retaliatory measures that also affect the wheat trade. China imposed an additional 15% duty on US wheat, Canada and Mexico are considering or have already announced retaliatory tariffs on US products.