In May 2024, global wheat export prices rose sharply in all major producing countries, with many recording double-digit growth. Increasing concerns about the impact of unfavorable crop conditions on the 2024 harvest in the European Union and the Russian Federation led to a 16 percent increase in prices in the EU and a 12 percent increase in the Russian Federation.
Turkey's Agriculture Ministry announced it will ban wheat imports from June 21 to mid-October to protect Turkish farmers from falling prices and other negative factors during the harvest.
Previous administrations resisted raising prices for fear of civil unrest. But because of a falling currency and rising prices for wheat imports, government officials recently made the unpopular decision to raise the cost of a loaf of bread from 4 piastres to 20. The increase amounts to about a quarter of a cent in U.S. currency.
In its latest forecast for the 2024 European Union and UK grain harvest, published on June 10, COCERAL (European Agricultural Trade Association) increased its forecast to 296 million tonnes, up some 500,000 tonnes from its previous forecast in March.
The harvest is expected to be about 3.2 million tons higher than in 2023.
Record rainfall at the end of last year negatively impacted winter cereal planting (wheat/barley) in north-western Europe (France, Germany, UK, Baltics, Poland), while production in Spain will increase significantly compared to 2023.
Wheat production (excluding durum wheat) is expected to reach 134.5 million tons, up from 134.1 million tons in the March forecast and up from 139.9 million tons last year. Barley production is forecast slightly lower, to 59.9 million tonnes from 61.2 million in the previous forecast, but up from 54.4 million in 2023. Denmark, Finland and Spain will have better barley harvests than in 2023, COCERAL reports.
Recent rains have worsened the outlook for wheat and barley production in France, the EU's largest grain producer, and also slowed corn planting, Reuters reported, citing data from FranceAgriMer.