An expected decline in global production against rising demand is seen tightening the global wheat market further in 2021/22, as evidenced by the multiyear high price levels maintained since the start of the year.

International wheat prices increased again in November, marking a fifth consecutive monthly increase, as strong demand amid tighter supplies, especially of higher quality wheat, among the major exporters continued to provide support. Black Sea quotations led the increase, up at least 7 percent month on month, reflecting the uncertainty regarding potential changes to export measures by the Russian Federation and strong export pace from Ukraine.

Climate change may affect the production of maize (corn) and wheat as early as 2030 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, according to a new NASA study published in the journal, Nature Food. Maize crop yields are projected to decline 24%, while wheat could potentially see growth of about 17%.

International wheat prices surged in August, reflecting a deterioration of production prospects in several major producers. Adverse conditions reduced yields and lowered output forecasts in Canada, the Russian Federation and the United States of America, and crop quality concerns rose in the European Union. With global wheat production in 2021 now forecast to decline below the record 2020 output, export quotations from all major origins increased.

European Union countries on Monday gave the green light to reforms of the bloc's huge farming subsidy programme, after a three-year battle over rules to make it greener and support smaller farms. Negotiators representing the EU's 27 countries and European Parliament struck the deal on Friday to reform the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), which will spend 387 billion euros on payments to farmers and rural development, roughly a third of the EU's 2021-2027 budget.