Ukraine may ease wheat-export curbs as soon as next month, once it is confident that spring sowing is progressing enough despite Russia’s invasion, though export capacity remains strained with some seaports effectively closed by fighting, an official who oversees the country’s trade said.

The conflict between the two wheat-surplus nations has raged on for a month now, with no end in sight. Consequently, this supply shock has made the global wheat prices climb — all working in India’s favour.
Averaging 100 million tonnes (MT) in the last five years, India is the world’s second-largest producer of wheat after China (133 MT), but a high consumption base has seldom allowed the country to be a big exporter. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), clubbed together, Russia and Ukraine produce more or less the same amount of wheat India does, 104 MT.

Argentine farmers have excelled in the past year, with the 2021-22 wheat harvest expected to be a record. During November and December they brought in 21.9 million metric tonnes of wheat, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. That was up some 28 per cent on the same period for the 2020-21 season.

The European Commission on Thursday increased its forecast of European Union common wheat stocks at the end of the 2021/22 season as it revised up sharply expected imports. In monthly supply and demand projections, the Commission projected stocks of common  wheat, or soft wheat, at the end of the season at 13.3 million tonnes, up from 12.9 million seen in December and a four-year high. This month's increase to the stocks forecast was mainly due to a 500,000 tonne upward revision to 2021/22 EU common wheat imports to 2.0 million tonnes.

An expected decline in global production against rising demand is seen tightening the global wheat market further in 2021/22, as evidenced by the multiyear high price levels maintained since the start of the year.