Argentine farmers have excelled in the past year, with the 2021-22 wheat harvest expected to be a record. During November and December they brought in 21.9 million metric tonnes of wheat, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. That was up some 28 per cent on the same period for the 2020-21 season.
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The European Commission on Thursday increased its forecast of European Union common wheat stocks at the end of the 2021/22 season as it revised up sharply expected imports. In monthly supply and demand projections, the Commission projected stocks of common wheat, or soft wheat, at the end of the season at 13.3 million tonnes, up from 12.9 million seen in December and a four-year high. This month's increase to the stocks forecast was mainly due to a 500,000 tonne upward revision to 2021/22 EU common wheat imports to 2.0 million tonnes.
International wheat prices increased again in November, marking a fifth consecutive monthly increase, as strong demand amid tighter supplies, especially of higher quality wheat, among the major exporters continued to provide support. Black Sea quotations led the increase, up at least 7 percent month on month, reflecting the uncertainty regarding potential changes to export measures by the Russian Federation and strong export pace from Ukraine.
Climate change may affect the production of maize (corn) and wheat as early as 2030 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario, according to a new NASA study published in the journal, Nature Food. Maize crop yields are projected to decline 24%, while wheat could potentially see growth of about 17%.
International wheat prices surged in August, reflecting a deterioration of production prospects in several major producers. Adverse conditions reduced yields and lowered output forecasts in Canada, the Russian Federation and the United States of America, and crop quality concerns rose in the European Union. With global wheat production in 2021 now forecast to decline below the record 2020 output, export quotations from all major origins increased.