The European Union is heading towards a smaller wheat crop this year as drought and extreme heat shrink yields in some regions, offsetting more favourable prospects elsewhere after timely rain.

Soft wheat yields in the EU for the 2022-23 marketing year (July-June) have been slashed for a third straight month in June, drawing supply concerns as smaller EU output could further stretch wheat markets in the absence of key supplies from the Black Sea. Soft wheat yields were cut to 5.76 mt/ha from 5.89 mt/ha, the EU Commission said June 21. The latest projection is also below the five-year average of 5.84 mt/ha for soft wheat yields.

A senior government official said on Monday Ukraine’s grain harvest was likely to drop to around 48.5 million tonnes this year from 86 million tonnes last year following Russia’s invasion. First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said the total area sown had fallen by 25% and the 2022/23 exportable surplus could be 30 million tonnes, meaning significant loss of revenue. The wheat harvest would be around 17-20 million tonnes, he said.

Argentine farmers have excelled in the past year, with the 2021-22 wheat harvest expected to be a record. During November and December they brought in 21.9 million metric tonnes of wheat, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. That was up some 28 per cent on the same period for the 2020-21 season.

The European Commission on Thursday increased its forecast of European Union common wheat stocks at the end of the 2021/22 season as it revised up sharply expected imports. In monthly supply and demand projections, the Commission projected stocks of common  wheat, or soft wheat, at the end of the season at 13.3 million tonnes, up from 12.9 million seen in December and a four-year high. This month's increase to the stocks forecast was mainly due to a 500,000 tonne upward revision to 2021/22 EU common wheat imports to 2.0 million tonnes.