Kazakhstan’s wheat and barley production is expected to rebound significantly in 2022-23 and regain its market share lost due to lower production last season, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). Exports of barley, wheat and wheat flour are expected to reach multiyear highs on strong production and steady demand from importing countries, the USDA said.

World wheat prices continued to decline for the third consecutive month in August. The European Union (France, grade 1) export prices fell by 4 percent month on month, reflecting greater seasonal availability from the ongoing harvest and increased availability from Ukraine with the re-opening of three Black Sea ports. Argentina’s (Up River, f.o.b.) and Australia’s (Eastern States, ASW) quotations also declined by 4 and 7 percent, respectively, in August.

The European Union is heading towards a smaller wheat crop this year as drought and extreme heat shrink yields in some regions, offsetting more favourable prospects elsewhere after timely rain.

Soft wheat yields in the EU for the 2022-23 marketing year (July-June) have been slashed for a third straight month in June, drawing supply concerns as smaller EU output could further stretch wheat markets in the absence of key supplies from the Black Sea. Soft wheat yields were cut to 5.76 mt/ha from 5.89 mt/ha, the EU Commission said June 21. The latest projection is also below the five-year average of 5.84 mt/ha for soft wheat yields.

A senior government official said on Monday Ukraine’s grain harvest was likely to drop to around 48.5 million tonnes this year from 86 million tonnes last year following Russia’s invasion. First Deputy Agriculture Minister Taras Vysotskyi said the total area sown had fallen by 25% and the 2022/23 exportable surplus could be 30 million tonnes, meaning significant loss of revenue. The wheat harvest would be around 17-20 million tonnes, he said.