USDA forecasts bigger crops, lower prices for 2023-24 crops

US wheat production is projected to increase 14% for 2023-24 to 1.887 billion bushels on both higher acreage and yield. Total wheat planted acre is projected at 49.5 million acres, up nearly 3.8 million acres from the 2022-23 crop, and the highest since 2016-17. The average farmgate price for wheat is forecast at $8.50 a bushel, down 50 cents a bushel from the 2022-23 crop.

The all-wheat yield is projected to increase 6% to 49.2 bpa. Total wheat supply will hit 2.575 billion bushels, up 107 million bushels from last year's crop.

Total domestic use is forecast at 1.142 billion bushels, up 17 million bushels. Exports are forecast at 825 million bushels, up 75 million bushels from 2022-23. That puts total use at 1.967 billion bushels, up 67 million bushels from a year ago. All-wheat ending stocks will come in at 608 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from a year ago.