Grain production in the EU and the UK has been revised down sharply

Grain production in the European Union and the United Kingdom has been revised down sharply in COCERAL’s latest forecast as adverse weather conditions weigh on harvests.

In its fourth forecast for the 2024 crop, COCERAL forecasts total cereal production at 280.3 million tonnes, down 5% from its previous forecast of 296 million tonnes and below the 294.2 million tonnes forecast for 2023.

“Rain and lack of sunshine in spring significantly affected winter crop production in Western Europe, particularly in France and Germany,” COCERAL said in a report dated September 20. “This exacerbated the reduced plantings caused by excessively wet conditions in autumn 2023. Hot and dry weather during pollination impacted spring crop yields in southeastern Europe.”

Soft wheat production (excluding durum) is now estimated at 126 million tonnes, down from 134.5 million in the June forecast and below last year’s 140.3 million.

In particular, France, the EU’s largest soft wheat producer and exporter, has just harvested what is expected to be its worst wheat crop in 40 years, down almost 25% on the previous year.

EU27+UK barley production has also been revised down from 59.9 million tonnes to 57.6 million, but that total will still be higher than the 54.8 million tonnes harvested in 2023, COCERAL said.

The EU27+UK rapeseed harvest forecast is 18.1 million tonnes, below the previous forecast of 19.4 million tonnes and below the 2023 total of 21.3 million tonnes.