In its 6 February 2026 update, FAO raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to 3 023 million tonnes (up 19.9 million tonnes from last month), reinforcing expectations of a record crop. The main driver is wheat: better-than-anticipated yields in Argentina, Canada and the European Union are set to lift world wheat output to a new all-time high. The outlook for coarse grains was also nudged higher to a fresh peak, reflecting updated information from China and the United States pointing to larger maize area and stronger yields, alongside upward revisions to barley production in Australia and Canada.

China’s total grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach a record 715 million tonnes, according to an assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Despite higher domestic output, demand for staple grains — particularly wheat and corn — continues to expand, driven mainly by the feed sector, which is expected to support higher import volumes.