Global wheat markets are embarking on the 2022/23 season with a great deal of uncertainty. The impacts of the ongoing war in Ukraine, trade policy changes in several countries, and high international prices will shape much of the wheat market outlook. International wheat prices are at levels not reached since 2008, following a season of tight global availability due to reduced harvests in some major exporting countries and export suspensions by others, including Ukraine (a major exporter) and India (an emerging exporter), along with supply concerns for 2022/23 also adding pressure.

Due to global supply concerns, Egypt, perennially among the world’s largest wheat importers, will allow wheat shipments with a moisture level of up to 14% for a year, up from 13.5%. Egypt usually sources most of its wheat from Russia and Ukraine, where conflict has disrupted its purchases of relatively cheaper Black Sea wheat and inflated global prices. The North African country received 82% of its wheat from Ukraine and Russia in 2020, and a March US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report estimated Egypt would import a total of 12 million tonnes of the staple food crop in 2021-22.