FAO update: Record cereal output supports a rebound in stocks
In its 6 February 2026 update, FAO raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to 3 023 million tonnes (up 19.9 million tonnes from last month), reinforcing expectations of a record crop. The main driver is wheat: better-than-anticipated yields in Argentina, Canada and the European Union are set to lift world wheat output to a new all-time high. The outlook for coarse grains was also nudged higher to a fresh peak, reflecting updated information from China and the United States pointing to larger maize area and stronger yields, alongside upward revisions to barley production in Australia and Canada.
On the demand side, FAO forecasts world cereal utilization in 2025/26 to rise to 2 938 million tonnes (+2.2% year on year), led by a strong increase in maize use. The report highlights higher maize demand in Egypt, linked to rapid growth in poultry production and expanding livestock and aquaculture operations, and in the United States, where maize demand for ethanol has strengthened. Wheat utilization is still projected to increase year on year, supported by growth in both food and feed use. Even with robust usage and active exports, FAO expects global cereal stocks to rebuild by the close of 2026 seasons, and the stocks-to-use ratio is projected to rise to 31.8%, the highest since 2001—a sign of a more comfortable overall supply cushion.
FAO also anticipates that world trade in cereals will expand in 2025/26 to 501 million tonnes (+3.6% year on year). Trade in wheat is forecast to rise from last season, with Argentina, Australia, the European Union and the Russian Federation expected to regain market share. While demand from China remains subdued, import forecasts for several countries—including Iran and Uzbekistan—have been revised upward to meet domestic needs after below-average harvests. Overall, the update points to stronger supply fundamentals and improving stock levels, with near-term price dynamics likely to be shaped more by weather risks in key producing regions and the pace of feed demand than by immediate scarcity concerns.