China increases wheat and corn imports despite record grain output

China’s total grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach a record 715 million tonnes, according to an assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Despite higher domestic output, demand for staple grains — particularly wheat and corn — continues to expand, driven mainly by the feed sector, which is expected to support higher import volumes.

Corn production is forecast at around 301 million tonnes, with feed use rising amid relatively low domestic prices. At the same time, industry assessments point to quality concerns affecting part of the new crop, especially in northern regions, where toxin contamination has been reported. Under these conditions, feed producers are increasingly substituting corn with wheat and other grains.

As a result, China’s corn import forecast has been raised to 8 million tonnes, supported by demand for higher-quality grain, easing of certain trade restrictions, and the resumption of shipments from Ukraine.

Wheat production in 2025/26 is projected at approximately 140 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to remain near 150 million tonnes for a second consecutive season. Wheat imports are therefore forecast to increase to 6 million tonnes, although this remains well below the peak levels seen earlier in the decade. Market participants also note ongoing efforts to diversify supply sources. In this context, state-owned COFCO International has recently completed its first commercial shipment of Argentine wheat to China following market access approval.

Implications for the European Union and the Baltic states

For the European Union, rising Chinese imports provide additional support to global demand at a time of ample supply, helping to limit downward pressure on prices, particularly in the feed grain and mid-quality wheat segments.

For the Baltic states, where grain production plays an important role in rural economies and export flows, this trend may contribute to greater price stability, while also intensifying competition among exporters. China’s purchasing strategy increasingly prioritizes quality, safety and supply reliability, alongside price considerations.

Overall, China’s approach demonstrates that even with high levels of domestic production, imports remain an important tool for balancing the market. For producers in Europe and the Baltic region, this underscores the importance of monitoring not only global production volumes, but also evolving quality requirements and shifts in consumption patterns.