Record Argentine wheat crop set to intensify global competition

Argentina is expected to harvest a record wheat crop of around 27.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, according to an assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Industry observers attribute the increase to sustained investment in improved seed genetics and production technologies, combined with favourable weather conditions, including a wet winter and a relatively cool grain-maturing period.

Wheat exports are projected to reach 17.5 million tonnes, including flour expressed in grain equivalent, marking a significant expansion of Argentina’s presence on the global wheat market. At the same time, part of the crop is reported to be of lower quality, with a larger share suitable for feed use or blending with higher-quality wheat from other origins.

Ending stocks by the close of the season could approach 5 million tonnes, the highest level on record. According to sector assessments, a substantial portion of these volumes may remain stored on farms, as producers wait for more favourable price conditions or potential changes in export policy.

Argentine wheat shipments are expected to be directed primarily toward markets in Asia, Africa and Latin America. Imports by Brazil, traditionally a key destination, may decline due to quality constraints. Market attention has also been drawn to the first wheat shipments to China in several decades, indicating a gradual broadening of export destinations.

Implications for the European Union and the Baltic states

For the European Union, the increase in Argentine wheat supply represents additional availability on the global market, which is likely to maintain downward pressure on prices, particularly in the feed and medium-quality segments. This strengthens competition among major exporting regions and keeps the issue of fair trading conditions in focus.

For the Baltic states, where agriculture plays an important role in rural employment and food self-sufficiency, the situation may translate into tighter export margins and higher price volatility. At the same time, livestock producers and processors could benefit from more accessible raw materials if global supply remains ample.

Overall, Argentina’s record harvest underlines that the 2025/26 wheat season is shaping up to be one of strong supply and intensified competition, where price levels will be influenced not only by volume, but also by quality, origin and the ability of producers to safeguard local production interests.