In its 6 February 2026 update, FAO raised its forecast for global cereal production in 2025 to 3 023 million tonnes (up 19.9 million tonnes from last month), reinforcing expectations of a record crop. The main driver is wheat: better-than-anticipated yields in Argentina, Canada and the European Union are set to lift world wheat output to a new all-time high. The outlook for coarse grains was also nudged higher to a fresh peak, reflecting updated information from China and the United States pointing to larger maize area and stronger yields, alongside upward revisions to barley production in Australia and Canada.

China’s total grain production in the 2025/26 marketing year is expected to reach a record 715 million tonnes, according to an assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Despite higher domestic output, demand for staple grains — particularly wheat and corn — continues to expand, driven mainly by the feed sector, which is expected to support higher import volumes.

Kazakhstan plans to significantly expand its grain deep-processing capacity by 2028 through the implementation of five projects with a combined capacity of up to 4.8 million tonnes of wheat and corn per year. According to the Ministry of Agriculture of Kazakhstan, this strategy is viewed as a key step in transitioning the agro-industrial sector from a raw-material export model toward the production of competitive, higher value-added goods.

Argentina is expected to harvest a record wheat crop of around 27.5 million tonnes in the 2025/26 season, according to an assessment by the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. Industry observers attribute the increase to sustained investment in improved seed genetics and production technologies, combined with favourable weather conditions, including a wet winter and a relatively cool grain-maturing period.

The European Union and the Mercosur bloc — Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay — have signed a long-awaited free trade agreement, concluding more than 25 years of negotiations.